Cullmann Design Blog

In general I am an observer, but this year, I am going to focus my energy on compiling my thoughts and communicating my ideas. In this spirit, I am beginning with my Technology Predictions for 2009. This list represents what ideas and trends that I think will shape new technologies and trends on the internet in this coming year.

Looking back on 2008, there have been many advancements in technology, the way that people interact with one another and how, as a culture we are adapting the internet into our lives. This year we had seen FaceBook branch into demographics that were thought to be flat for new technologies. Social Networking is maturing into a very defined epicenter of our lives. Whether we are interacting socially using FaceBook or MySpace, for Business with LinkedIn or for Entertainment using NetFlix and Joost. The ability to share with and effect one another’s opinions is a powerful and compelling pull for users.

I think 2009 will see the continuation of many trends: continued growth of social networking, wider adoption of web-based tools and “cloud” based storage and distribution. I think the following list will show the most prominent areas for growth this year:

1. Social Media Consolidation-Interoperability
   FaceBook, MySpace, LinkedIn…there are so many networks used by so many groups. 2009 will see the emergence of some type of global identity management. Although a few have emerged this year, a single, widely adopted standard will emerge. My bet is for OpenSocial (Google’s social media identity key)
2. Medical Record and HealthCare Applications
   People becoming increasingly comfortable with managing their lives online will lead to those same users trusting more in online data management. Google will likely emerge as the standard here since they represent the most stable name in technology (with the exception of MicroSoft). This year will see an online personal medical record standard become adapted by a notable share of the general public (at the very least, the early adopter set)
3. Twitter will become popular via adoption by celebrity set/marketing
   2009 will see a surge to Twitter. This wider adoption will result from a celebrity of note using Twitter as a marketing tool. This same surge will also result in marketers using Twitter for “deal” based traffic drives. Small-scale examples are already proving successful for Dell and Adagio
4. AIR/Silverlight will become mature solutions for “cloud-based” computing
   A dependence of “cloud-based” apps will spur an evolution of Rich Internet Application (RIA), Desktop convergence. Currently, Adobe’s AIR and MicroSoft’s Silverlight are the clear candidates that will battle for developer’s attentions in 2009.
5. New online advertising model based on “individual” social media status and/or popularity
   Social Netowrking wesbites and Video sites will force advertisers to embrace new ad-models. These models will be very targeted and account for the content on a given page, the popularity of the content and expected longevity. This will be a boon for those who learn to master the metrics of these complicated new behavior models
6. Windows 7 will be a widely adopted release and MicroSoft’s most successful OS release
   VISTA was a marketing and adoption failure. As a VISTA user myself, I don’t see why there was no widespread move to VISTA (although I myself have moved back and forth between XP and VISTA three times since VISTA’s release). Windows 7, already a very mature BETA positioned for release Q3 this year, promises to make up for lost time. MicroSoft’s low-no hype on this release and it’s base in a currently mature VISTA architecture will have users who have been dragging their feet adopt this new Windows release
7. IPTV and the computer as a true media hub
   YouTube, Hulu, Joost, and network-branded websites will all take a large share of viewer attention. Metrics show that younger users already take preference to the computer as their preferred medium. As the media loosens it’s grip on content and advertising models adapt, more and more viewers will flock to watch their favorite shows on their own schedule, in their own terms and in their own time. Intelligent advertising will focus ads and make those spots that are viewed more relavent and easy to monitor and act upon

Happy New Year.